As we enter into the secod month of 2021, let's make a better outlook on the GTA Home Market after the status of last month was out.
- The expected combine home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System for the GTA, South Simcoe County and Orangeville are expected to reach 105,000;
- This strong sales growth will be supported by continued economic recovery, including jobs and record or near-record lows for borrowing costs;
- The pace of new condominium apartment listings will start to ebb, especially in the second half of the year. With low-rise listings remaining constrained, expect total new listings to come in at the 160,000 mark;
- Market conditions for low-rise homes, including detached houses, will remain very tight, with sales rising at a faster pace than listings.
- The overall average selling price for all home types and areas combined will eclipse the $1,000,000 mark for the first time, reaching $1,025,000 and representing a year-over-year increase of 10 per cent;
While mortgage deferrals were initially a concern early on in the pandemic, Mortgage Professionals Canada does not anticipate any pronounced uptick in mortgage delinquencies that would create systemic concerns as we move through 2021. Most property owners who took advantage of mortgage deferrals did so out of an abundance of caution rather than financial necessity and therefore have resumed their regular payments.
January 2021 Market Stats
January home sales amounted to 6,928 – up by more than 50 per cent compared to January 2020. This strong start to 2021 included sales growth across all major segments, including condominium apartments, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions. The number of new listings were also up on a year-over-year basis in January, but not by the same annual rate as sales.
This means market conditions tightened compared to January 2020, resulting in the continuation of double-digit growth in the MLS® Home Price Index and the average selling price.
The average selling price for January 2021 was up by 15.5 per cent to $967,885 year over year.
The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 11.9 per cent over the same period. The price growth was mainly driven by the low-rise market segments, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth outstrip condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.
Stay tuned next month for the February issue of Market Watch to Your Inbox.